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[Gold Rush] This Commodity Isn't Dead, It's Just Sleeping 😴

May 5, 2025

We're amidst an epic bull market for precious metals. And while gold and silver get all the headlines, we think Palladium could end up being the sneaky outperformer in this cycle.

We laid out the case in February: Commercial hedgers were loading up at record levels

That only happens when Palladium is dirt cheap, which it certainly is right now. The price is still trading more than 70% below the 2022 peak.

Price has done nothing for months. 

But that might be exactly what we want.

Here's the seasonality setup for Palladium 👇
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177K Reasons the Fed Can Wait

May 4, 2025

The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth. 

Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.

 

And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.

Goldman and Barclays just said the quiet part out loud: the Fed doesn’t need to move yet.

So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.

...

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(Commodities Weekly) Who Let The Cows Out? 🐂

May 2, 2025

After a decade of going nowhere, livestock futures are showing signs of life.

While other commodities have recently stolen the spotlight, the livestock space has quietly been forming some of the most powerful bases in the commodities market.

Now we’re seeing breakouts across the board - from Live Cattle to Feeder Cattle, and potentially Lean Hogs next.

Let’s walk through the setup...

Our ASC Livestock Index has broken out above a major shelf of resistance 📈 

This equal-weight basket of Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs spent over a decade carving out a massive base, testing the 2014 highs multiple times before finally clearing the level.

That’s the principle of polarity in action: what was once resistance is now support.

With bulls back in control, we’re targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 221. That's almost 25% more upside from the current price!

It’s time to stop fading strength and start riding the uptrend in livestock.

Is it time for Lean Hogs to catch up? 🐷 

Lean Hogs futures are lagging, but maybe not for long.

Prices are pushing against a major downtrend line...