When we last checked in, Crude Oil futures were falling apart as they sliced through significant levels of support like butter. 

The breakdown wasn’t subtle. It was decisive and came alongside broad weakness in the entire commodity complex.

Now, the carnage is spreading.

This week, it’s not just energy commodities that are under pressure...

It’s also the stocks tied to them.

This ratio ($RSPG / $RSP) has been treading water in a sideways range for over two years. 

It has bounced from the same support level multiple times, but that level is now under serious threat. 

We’ve got a massive topping pattern on our hands. It's rounded, heavy, and on the verge of a confirmed breakdown.

One more leg lower, and Energy’s former leadership story gets completely erased.

But that’s just the beginning…

We're amidst an epic bull market for precious metals. And while gold and silver get all the headlines, we think Palladium could end up being the sneaky outperformer in this cycle.

We laid out the case in February: Commercial hedgers were loading up at record levels. 

That only happens when Palladium is dirt cheap, which it certainly is right now. The price is still trading more than 70% below the 2022 peak.

Price has done nothing for months. 

But that might be exactly what we want.

The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth. 

Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.

And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.

Goldman and Barclays just said the quiet part out loud: the Fed doesn’t need to move yet.

So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.

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